Overseas zinc mines continue to ramp up production; zinc concentrates production in Q1 2025 increases YoY[SMM Analysis]

SMM May 13 News:

Recently, Q1 reports of overseas listed zinc mining companies have been released one after another. Unexpected factors such as heavy rain, floods, and wildfires disrupted production again in Q1, causing a decline in output at some mines. However, production at other mines continued to recover or ramp up. With both increases and decreases, how did overseas zinc mines perform in Q1? Let's examine the specific performance of each miner.

SMM compiled production statistics for 17 major overseas miners. Based on the data disclosed in their financial reports, the total zinc concentrates production of these 17 miners in Q1 2025 was 1.258 million mt, a decrease of 36,200 mt (-2.8%) MoM from 1.2942 million mt in Q4 2024 and an increase of 90,500 mt (7.7%) YoY from 1.1675 million mt in Q1 2024. The following figure shows SMM's quarterly production data for each miner.

By miner:

• Boliden: Zinc production in Q1 2025 was 57,900 mt, up 38.9% MoM and 45.8% YoY. The report disclosed that zinc concentrates production at The Boliden Area in Sweden was 11,700 mt in Q1, Tara mine produced 21,600 mt of zinc concentrates in Q1, and Garpenberg mine in Sweden produced 24,600 mt of zinc concentrates in Q1. Overall, with the continuous recovery of production at Tara mine, Boliden's zinc mine production increased significantly in Q1.
• Buenaventura: Zinc mine production in Q1 2025 was 5,800 mt, down 1.9% MoM and 34.2% YoY. The report disclosed that the El Brocal mine in Peru was depleted in Q1 2024 and ceased production starting from Q2; the Uchucchacua mine in Peru restarted in Q4 2023, producing 5,300 mt of zinc ore in Q1; and the Tambomayo mine in Peru produced 500 mt of zinc ore in Q1 2025. Overall, zinc mine production at all three mines under Buenaventura declined in Q1.
• Lundin: Zinc production in Q1 2025 was 48,900 mt, down 5.8% MoM and up 7.1% YoY. Zinc concentrates production at Zinkgruvan in Sweden was 21,300 mt in Q1, up 10.7% YoY; and at Neves-Corvo in Portugal was 27,700 mt in Q1, up 4.6% YoY.
• MMG: Zinc concentrates production in Q1 2025 was 51,800 mt, down 19% MoM and 12.7% YoY. By mine, affected by external challenges such as wildfires and floods, Dugald River produced 40,900 mt of zinc concentrates in Q1, down 8.7% YoY; due to adjustments in mining sequence, a decline in ore grade, combined with wildfire disasters and planned maintenance, Rosebery produced 10,900 mt of zinc concentrates in Q1, down 25% YoY. Its production guidance for 2025 is 170,000-185,000 mt and 45,000-55,000 mt, respectively.
• Newmont: Zinc concentrates production in Q1 2025 was 59,000 mt. Its production guidance for 2025 is 236,000 mt.
• Nexa: Total zinc concentrates production in Q1 2025 was 67,300 mt, down 23% YoY, mainly due to lower production at all units except Atacocha. Compared to Q4 2024, zinc production decreased by 8%, also due to lower production at all operating units except Cerro Lindo.
• Pan American Silver Corp: Total zinc concentrates production in Q1 2025 was 14,000 mt, up 43% YoY and basically flat MoM compared to Q4 2024. Its zinc mine production guidance for 2025 is 42,000-45,000 mt.
• TECK: Red Dog produced 116,800 mt of zinc concentrates in Q1 2025, down 19.6% YoY and 9% MoM. Zinc production decreased due to lower grade and recovery rate, which was anticipated in the mine plan. Its production guidance for 2025 is 430,000-470,000 mt, for 2026 is 410,000-460,000 mt, and for 2027 is 365,000-400,000 mt, with production expected to continue to decline.
• Vedanta: Total zinc concentrates production in Q1 2025 was 360,000 mt, up 16% MoM and 8% YoY. Zinc India in India produced a total of 310,000 mt of zinc concentrates in Q1 2025, up 4% YoY; and Zinc International produced 50,000 mt of zinc concentrates in Q1, up 52% YoY.
• Glencore: Self-produced zinc production in Q1 2025 was 213,600 mt, up 3.9% YoY. Its self-produced zinc production guidance for 2025 is 930,000-990,000 mt.
• Antamina: Zinc concentrates production in Q1 2025 was 91,000 mt, up 41% YoY. Based on production guidance, zinc concentrates output at this mine is expected to recover to over 400,000 mt in 2025 but will decline again to around 260,000 mt in 2026.
• Ivanhoe: Kipushi mine produced 43,000 mt of zinc concentrates in Q1. Its production guidance target for 2025 is 180,000-240,000 mt of zinc. After completing the production ramp-up and expansion plan, it is expected to reach an annual zinc production capacity of 250,000 mt in 2026.

Outlook for Q2
As overseas zinc mines that have commenced production continue to ramp up output, it is expected that by 2025, the global zinc ore shortage will ease somewhat. Looking at Q2, the production of Tara zinc mine is anticipated to continue rising steadily, and Kipushi mine is also expected to keep ramping up output in Q2. In addition, there is news of increased production from the oz zinc mine. Furthermore, the output of mines affected by unexpected factors in Q1 is expected to recover in Q2. It is projected that overseas zinc ore production will continue to increase QoQ in Q2.